Ryan is on location at Hard Eight BBQ in Stephenville, Texas and even after a big meal, the insights keep coming. In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist,break down what the recent jobs numbers and economic data are really telling us. The economy is slowing… but does that mean a recession is coming? Not so fast. The duo digs into job growth, AI-driven capital spending, and why consumer contributions are being overshadowed — for now.
Key Takeaways:
- Job growth is decelerating Just 35,000 jobs added monthly on average in the last 3 months — down sharply from 2023’s pace of 150K–200K/month.
- GDP growth is softer but still positive The economy grew just 1.2% (annualized) in the first half of the year, well below last year’s ~3%.
- AI is doing the heavy lifting AI-related investment (hardware and software) added 1 percentage point to GDP growth over the last two quarters — outpacing consumption.
- Consumer spending is still happening — but less forcefully Despite comprising 70% of the economy, consumer spending only added 0.6 to 0.7 points to GDP recently.
- A slowdown ≠ a recession
Profit margins and earnings remain solid, and Sonu sees no immediate signs of recession.
